Since Mary Shelley first dreamed up Frankenstein's monster in the early 19th century, and perhaps long before, scientists have wondered if it would be possible to create artificial life. It's been 50 years since ordinary chemicals were first used in the lab to create artificial DNA. Now we are on the brink of the ability of scientists to create what can be legitimately called "artificial life forms" in the lab.
According to The Washington Post,1 researchers in Maryland recently built the first artificial chromosome, the genetic instructions that allow an organism to grow and reproduce. Soon those scientists will be able to make chromosomes for life forms that are entirely new.
This new field of so-called "synthetic biology" is being powered by high-tech synthesizers that can whip up new sequences of DNA in minutes rather than months. This makes possible the creation of cells that could produce new drugs or even a substitute for gasoline. In fact, Maryland-based Synthetic Genomics, headed by Craig Venter, is working on making cells to produce ethanol, hydrogen, and other fuels. Another company called Ls9, in San Carlos, California, is reprogramming E. coli bacteria to make a substitute fuel that is expected to sell for $1.25 a gallon.
With trillions of dollars at stake, the question of who owns the rights to these and other synthetic organisms is paramount. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has recently received an avalanche of applications for new life forms.
There is nothing that guarantees that the U.S. will continue to lead in this field. Scientists at the University of Nottingham have created cell membranes in the lab, one of the keys to artificial life, from reprogrammed versions of existing organisms. According to a report published in Angewandte Chemie International Edition,2 they assembled long polymer chains to form the membrane. Cells made with that membrane could have their first applications in targeted drug delivery systems, where the membrane structure helps selectively target cancer cells or bacteria.
As explained in Scientific American,3 a big objective behind commercialization of artificial life is establishing effective human control of industrial processes at the molecular level. Therefore, more and more scientists are designing and trying to build living systems that are much like industrial technology in that they behave predictably, they use interchangeable parts, and they can do things that no naturally occurring organism can do. Whether it's producing new drugs, multiplying the world's food supply, fueling your car, or eating toxic wastes, artificial life holds the promise of a quantum leap in effectiveness and efficiency.
Based on this trend, we offer the following six forecasts:
First, between 2010 and 2030, the world will witness a second revolution in genetic engineering. The decoding of genomes, along with technology to assemble customized segments of DNA, have already given scientists a library of components, each of which performs specific functions required to create new organisms. At MIT, these are called BioBricks and they are already being used to create artificial living components, which can be inserted into bacteria to do a given job.4 The MIT Registry of Standard Biological Parts now contains 140 elements, and the number is growing rapidly.5 While these parts are being used experimentally at the moment for seemingly trivial pursuits, such as making cells flash on and off in synchronization the way fireflies do, they are the first steps in true artificial life.
Second, with all the patents being filed, expect a tremendous surge in start-ups aimed at capitalizing on artificial life. The market in this sector will be worth trillions of dollars and will span the globe. In addition, the proliferation of small companies will create a real challenge for investors who wish to get in on the gold mine. In the short term, there is not likely to be one big winner, but rather many small niche players. (Think Silicon Valley, circa 1975!)
Third, in the medium term of 10 to 15 years, the companies that surge ahead of the market will be those that get the basics down. The emphasis won't be on an individual application, such as toxic waste clean-up or targeted drug delivery. It will instead be on how easily and flexibly the building blocks can be used to build new solutions. Think of it as similar to the period in the 1980s when microprocessors were starting to displace older technologies found in minicomputers and mainframes. No one really knew what to do with them, but they worked really well, and soon people were finding uses for them everywhere. The same will be true for artificial life forms. In that time frame, look for the Apple, Intel, or Microsoft of artificial life to emerge. But, don't be too surprised if they are overshadowed initially by a "big pharma" or "big energy" player taking on a role analogous to IBM in the PC era.
Fourth, the early payoff for artificial life investments will be in synthesizing drugs, such as those for malaria, which are hard to mass-produce. This is already being done at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where a quasi-artificial E. coli is making artemisinin, traditionally found in wormwood. Researchers are looking into producing the now-expensive cancer drug, Taxol, in the same way. Detecting toxins will be another application that will become widespread rather quickly. Meanwhile, for military and security applications, artificial organisms will be bred that can detect and disable explosives. They will also make an impact on the energy industry. As Wired6 magazine reported, the Department of Energy recently committed $125 million to using artificial life to create ethanol from plants with unprecedented efficiency.
Fifth, science, industry, and government will need to work hand-in-hand to manage the real and imagined threats that artificial life will bring. Artificial life has the potential to transform the global economy, but don't expect a smooth linear progression. Well-founded fears — like misuse by terrorists and the overthrow of long-established industries — will be mixed with irrational fears, like those already faced by genetically modified foods. Our regulatory structures and legal mechanisms are not well-suited to dealing with these issues. Therefore, the Trends editors expect such challenges to play a bigger role in determining the diffusion of this technology than the underlying technology itself.
Sixth, far from resolving religious differences related to the origin and nature of life, artificial life will simply reinforce both naturalists and theists in their positions. Naturalists will argue that when man can create life in the laboratory, there is nothing "magic" about it. For them, this will be further evidence against God. On the other hand, theists will have an even a stronger argument. They'll argue that, "It has taken billions of man-hours of work by the most brilliant human minds, under ideal laboratory conditions, to recreate a unicellular organism based on modifying an existing model. Therefore, it defies reason to assume that raw molecules were assembled into a functional life form under harsh early-earth conditions, without the active intervention of a mind far superior to that of any human scientist." In short, artificial life may dispel some of the wonder associated with living things, but it's the ultimate demonstration of intelligent design.
| References |
|---|
|