Addressing the Threat from Hypersonic Weapons

With China militarizing the South China Sea and Russia expanding into the Ukraine and working closely with Iran in Syria, the major powers are gearing up for the kind of stand-offs last seen during the Cold War. That means a renewed arms race which includes upgrading conventional forces, as well as renewing the “nuclear triad.”

In that context, the U.S. Military is racing to catch up in the field of hypersonic weapons. China and Russia have both conducted tests of these extremely fast weapons as an asymmetric response to American military superiority

China’s DF-ZF boost glide weapon has undergone multiple test shots, flying from the Wuzhai Missile Test Center in central China to Inner Mongolia. The DF-ZF uses a DF-21 intermediate range ballistic missile as a booster and flies at speeds of 4,000 to 7,000 miles an hour.

Russia's Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle is expected to enter service in 2020. Unlike the Chinese weapon, Avangard will almost certainly be configured to deliver a nuclear weapon designed to operate under U.S. ballistic missile defenses. Experts familiar with U.S. intelligence reports conclude that the Russian hypersonic glide vehicles are equipped with onboard countermeasures that are able to defeat even the most advanced missile-defense systems. Russian President Vladimir Putin says Avangard has a top speed of Mach 20, or twenty times the speed of sound. It is also highly maneuverable and, therefore, unpredictable, making it difficult to track.

Russia has also announced the development of the Kinzhal hypersonic weapon, which is just a new version of the ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missile fitted to a MiG-3Notably, some well-informed experts contend that this is really not a breakthrough. It simply mates two proven systems together to serve a new purpose. Russia has not yet shown that it can produce anything resembling a “hypersonic cruise missile.”

Even though both projects are real and Kinzhal has undergone tests, experts say, “it would be wise to take Russian estimates for delivery dates with a grain of salt.”

In response to warnings that the Chinese and Russians were pulling ahead in this technology, the U.S. Air Force recently awarded major defense contractor Lockheed Martin a $928 million contract to develop a hypersonic weapon The contract, announced in April by Air Force Magazine among others, is in support of the Air Force’s Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weapon (or HCSW) project, nicknamed “Hacksaw.” Little is known about the HCSW project other than that it exists.

According to Air Force Magazine there is a second, equally mysterious Air Force project called the Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon, or ARROW. Meanwhile, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (or DARPA), is working on two other projects: the Tactical Boost-Glide (or TBG) and the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (or HAWC), and the U.S. Navy also has its own hypersonic program.

In short, the U. S. is gearing up five projects in response to the two Russian efforts and one Chinese offering. The result could be a suite of weapons, each optimized for a specific set of challenges.

By definition, hypersonic weapons can travel at least five times the speed of sound. This is typically achieved by employing scramjet engines, which use an aircraft’s forward motion to shovel air at supersonic speeds into the engine, causing thrust. One big problem with scramjets, however, is their inability to operate at slower speeds. That means, a booster vehicle typically carries them to a velocity and altitude where the scramjet engine can take over.

There are two types of weapons emerging: hypersonic cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles.

Hypersonic cruise missiles such as America’s Arrow and HAWC projects are powered all the way to their targets using a SCRAMJET. These are very fast and maneuverable. Hypersonic cruise missiles can fly at altitudes up to 100,000 feet. Defenders may have just six minutes from the time they are launched until the time they strike.

On the other hand, hypersonic glide vehicles can fly above 100,000 feet. Hypersonic glide vehicles are placed on top of rockets, launched, and then glide on top of the atmosphere. They are like airplanes with no engines on them. China’s DF-ZF boost glide weapon, Russia's Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, and the American TBG and “Hacksaw” projects, are all hypersonic glide vehicles. They use aerodynamic forces to maintain stability, to fly along, and to maneuver. But, unlike a ballistic missile, a hypersonic glide vehicles is somewhat maneuverable, so it can keep its target a secret up until the last few seconds of its flight."

How will the U.S. defend against hypersonic weapons? Because hypersonic weapons are maneuverable and therefore, unpredictable, they are difficult to defend against. Today, we don’t have effective defenses against hypersonic technology. Our whole missile defensive system is based on the assumption that you’re going to intercept a ballistic object. However, ballistic missiles have predictable trajectories akin to a “fly ball” in baseball, an outfielder knows exactly where to catch it because its path is determined by momentum and gravity.

Russia, China, and the United States are racing to deploy hypersonic technologies that will deter each other. And, they are willing to expend large sums in order to do so.

Given this trend, we offer the following forecasts for your consideration.

First, through at least 2035, China will not represent a serious offensive threat to the United States, despite new technologies such as hypersonic weapons.

China has no capabilities that address America’s enormous advantage in submarine-based ICBMs. However, a Chinese lead in hypersonic weapons would raise the stakes for the United States in any situation involving a blockade of China. As a result, U. S. planners will strive to prevent China from gaining a sustainable advantage.

Second, Russia will use hypersonic technology as a psychological weapon to extract concessions from NATO, Japan and others.

Despite its enormous military capabilities, Russia remains a poor country, with few natural defenses, which is reliant on “extractive industries” for its survival. Being able to negotiate from a position of strength, with customers and competitors like the EU, China, Japan, and OPEC, is crucial. The United States now controls global oil and gas prices, so Russia needs to be able to credibly respond to any existential threat. Hypersonics are simply one more effort to revive the “hard power” once commanded by the Soviet Union.

Third, the Trump Administration will use this rising challenge from Russia and China, as a rationale for plugging a big hole the Obama Administration left in America’s defensive capabilities.

Far from being a “surprise” to Pentagon strategist, recent Russian and Chinese announcement were well anticipated. However, under the “lead from behind” policies of the Obama years, development and deployment of strategic technologies, including hypersonic weapons, was put “on hold.” But fortunately, in this and other areas, basic research continued. And, as you’ll notice, neither China nor Russia has overcome the tough challenges like reliable scramjet engines. But, now with proper funding, the United States can make these solutions deliverable by the mid-2020s. And,

Fourth, like many other modern weapons, the best deterrent against their use will be near-parity among their owners.

Chemical and biological weapons were not used in World War II because no combatant believed using them would create a competitive advantage. The same rationale was behind the doctrine of Mutually-Assured Destruction, which dominated the Cold War. As long as the United States, China, and Russia all have a plausible hypersonic capability, they will all be hesitant to use it first.